Felix Wigley's Commodity Trading Blog

A fundamental analysis behind my belief that the Brent Crude market is going to move laterally over the next few months Stagnating between low points - held up and sometimes spiked significantly by concerns regarding any real Russia/Ukraine peace, Trump tariffs (recently Venezuelan/Iranian oil), and sudden OPEC supply controls -   and highs that are beat down by decreasing demand - contributed to by slowing global economic growth - and a general trend of oversupply. S&P Global oil markets insights predicts the outcome of crude prices to move lower over the course of 2025 because of sluggish demand and overall rising production. Particularly rising production from OPEC producers, as it is not economically viable to cut their supply further from 2024 cuts, even if they do sometimes enforce certain members to pertain to their supply quotas (e.g. recently telling Iraq + Kazakhstan to cut back) -   outweighing any supply squeezes from tariffs placed on certain OPEC producers li...

  (All completed on a practice CFD trading account, better price spreads than spread betting and pricing more true reflection of real markets)   My trades for Brent crude were two mini $5 futures contracts dated June, controlling a notional amount of $72,800. I used the mini ($5) futures market as it requires much less margin and therefore less risk, which is better to test my first trades out with - although the $100k starting with in paper money hopefully is ample amounts to take bigger trades with in the future!   The first contract had a take-profit limit at the $7,200 price mark (for 1,000 barrels), in case my predicted upward movement from Brent’s bottoming at $6,815 was a temporary correction and not a true rally. The profit taken from this was $373. The movement has continued past the $7,200 price mark. The second contract currently has a take-profit at the $7,400 price mark, which is looking likely to reach. The current profit for the second contract is $577, whi...

* (Market consensus): - Global crude supply and inventory building outpacing demand growth - WTI is US primary benchmark and US refineries are not reliant on Brent Crude at the moment - Trump tariffs will have great exposure on any cross-border oil flows anyways. - US-Russia energy ceasefire has eased supply disruptions and reduced the risk of price spikes - which THE MARKET believes will be in the immediate / mid-term interest particularly of Russia until it has regathered itself economically if it wants to continue the war (Putin political suicide if not, supposedly). - Lack of new licenses in the North sea should not influence Brent price in immediate future, as current projects are transitioning and won’t immediately remove large volumes from the market. Also non-OPEC producers (notably brazil and guyana) are expected to increase production, helping balance the market.   - Seasonality aligns: spring-early summer, refinery maintenance, less need for heating, less driving/flying ...